Cold peace – a way forward for Russia and the West?

THE STAND-OFF between Russia and the West over Ukraine shows little sign of abating. A negotiated settlement is not likely to be reached soon, writes Professor Stefan Hedlund. In the meantime continued destruction and loss of life will produce a steady rise in mutual animosity. The real danger is that the world is witnessing the birth of a new security order for Europe, one which is miles from the vision to which Western political leaders remain committed. The complete breakdown in both trust and communication demonstrates that the two sides are not playing the same game. The case Western governments bring against the Kremlin is that Russia has violated a whole range of international treaties and conventions. The Kremlin’s position is that the conflict in Ukraine is not about Ukraine at all. It is merely a pretext created by the Western powers to ensure Russia will never again return to its rightful status as a great power. The stand-off reveals divisions which bode ill for the future. Russia feels its very existence is at stake and professes a readiness to go to war to ensure its strategic interests are not compromised. The West, meanwhile, displays increasing anxiety that its vision of a security order, which rests on treaties, trust and cooperation is being torn to shreds. As neither sanctions nor the collapse in the price of oil will encourage President Putin to back off Ukraine, the West is left with the same two options which were on the table when the crisis erupted. One is to escalate the conflict by arming Ukraine, which entails a distinct risk of seeing Nato troops in combat with Russian troops. The other is to negotiate on terms Russia finds acceptable, and by now those are not terms any Western government will find attractive. The roots of the West’s vision can be traced back to the 1970s, when the Cold War began to thaw. A Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe culminated in 1975 with the Helsinki Final Act. Signed by the US and Canada, together with all European countries except Albania, it established a fundamental set of ‘Ten Principles’. The document was seen, at the time, as a significant step towards reducing Cold War tensions and as a major diplomatic boost for the Soviet Union. Its clauses detailed the inviolability of national frontiers and respect for territorial integrity, which were seen to consolidate the USSR's territorial gains in Eastern Europe following the Second World War. As the Cold War was nearing its end, it did seem as though the spirit of Helsinki would inspire a peaceful and cooperative new order for Europe. In a speech before the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, in July 1989, the last Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, laid out his vision of a ‘Common European Home’. In October 1990, divided Germany was reunified. In November 1990, European leaders met to adopt a ‘Charter of Paris for a New Europe’ for which the Helsinki Accords served as the groundwork. The signatories of the Paris Charter proclaimed that Europe was liberating itself from the legacy of the past, and vowed their commitment to the new order: ‘To uphold and promote democracy, peace and unity in Europe’. In December 1991, as the Soviet Union went into its final death throes, European leaders met in Maastricht, to form a European Union which was explicitly built on common European values. From Russia’s point of view today, this is where it all went wrong. Russia claims (against all evidence) that its acceptance of German reunification was based on a promise that Nato would not take advantage by expanding one inch towards the east. The subsequent expansion of both Nato and the EU has been taken as vindication that the West had only one goal in mind: to reduce Russia to insignificance. When Mr Putin lashes out at betrayal by the West one can sense he is angered by the lack of respect and demands a place at the table where the fates of nations are decided by the great powers. Russian propaganda has not only been sowing hatred for America, it is also focussed on achieving an identity transformation which will deepen its rift with the West. The fact there is war between Russians and Ukrainians, long viewed as close members of the same family, indicates just how deep the ongoing transformation of Russia is. 2015 will mark the 40th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act, which permeated the spirit of the Paris Charter which Moscow signed. The only way out of the present deadlock must be to return to these cooperative processes, and engage Russia in a renewed commitment to common interests such as nuclear proliferation and the struggle against Islamic State. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

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