GLOBAL warming has transformed the Arctic into a playing field for international conflict and cooperation.
This was the main hunting ground for Soviet and American submarines during the Cold War between East and West which ended in 1990. As the ice cap melts, hosts of new interests are being drawn in – and the race is on for the best stakes.
The prime economic attraction lies below the seabed. The area north of the Arctic Circle has about 22 per cent of the world’s undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources.
The sudden arrival of possibilities to drill for these riches has attracted much interest, but serious exploration remains a matter for the future.
The technological challenges are daunting and costs will be high. The scramble for the Arctic will chiefly involve jurisdiction over huge territories yet to be claimed by any nation.
International law allows for an exclusive economic zone that extends no more than 200 nautical miles from the base shoreline. But the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea allows states to file claims to an extended continental shelf.
In the Arctic, the latter may translate into huge additional territories. Russia is talking about more than a million square kilometres and Canada, its main rival, has similar ambitions.
Although the governments of all the nations bordering the Arctic have reasons to watch over their interests, Russia does occupy a special place - it has 21.6 per cent of its territory and 2.3 million of its residents in the region.
Many industrial and mining cities on the shore are accessible only by sea and the last frontier of energy resources is offshore.
Global warming could breathe new life into this region, but the Kremlin’s main objective appears to be military rather than commercial.
The Russian Ministry of Defence has pointed at needs to provide ‘strategic deterrence in case of armed conflict by repulsing the act of aggression and halting military action’.
In July 2011, the then Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that two Arctic brigades would be deployed by 2020.
During the Cold War, American submarines were a constant danger. Soviet naval bases at the Kola Peninsula, which borders Nato member state Norway, had to be protected and airfields built to support long-range air patrols.
An important eastern outpost was Temp airfield at Kotelny Island. The base, in the New Siberian Islands archipelago, remained in service until 1993, when it was mothballed.
Temp has played an important symbolic role in the present programme to revive Russia’s military prowess. In mid-September 2013, a naval task force was sent on a highly symbolic 2,000 mile patrol from Severomorsk on the Kola Peninsula to Kotelny Island, where it staged drills.
The airfield was re-opened at the end of October 2013.
Other military adventures proceed apace. In October 2013, airborne units supported by heavy transport planes undertook a pioneering exercise that included dropping 40 metric tonnes of cargo from two Il-76 aircraft.
Looking ahead, one may legitimately question what purpose Russia has in breathing new life in its Arctic Cold War facilities. The original need to counter a threat from American submarines is after all no longer very credible.
Official sources seek to downplay the offensive military posture. In a recent interview with the Canadian Press, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy for the Arctic, Anton Vasilev, mentioned security threats that included ‘illegal trafficking, illegal border crossing, mass crime, terrorism, and narco-trafficking’.
The real challenge that the Kremlin would be well advised to confront concerns commercial shipping. One of the most striking consequences of the melting sea ice has been the prospect of a Northern Sea Route.
Sailing from Rotterdam to Shanghai via the Arctic will not only save considerable time - perhaps two weeks compared with sailing via Suez - but also avoid the threat from pirates.
It is expected that by 2030 there will be largely ice-free summers, defined as less than 10 per cent ice cover.
Russia is well placed to cash in on these developments. If the sea route is to be commercially viable, shipping will have to be supported by heavy icebreakers.
Russia already has several of these beasts, and its US$63 billion programme for Arctic development up to 2020 involves building another six.
The potential pay-off is substantial - this could be a frontier for Russia to become a commercial Arctic power.
Based on current trends, however, a more likely scenario is that investment will be reserved for military rather than commercial purposes.
Publication Date:
Tue, 2014-03-11 13:02
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Factbox Title:
Arctic forum
Factbox Facts:
The main forum for cooperation in the area is the Arctic Council, formed in 1996.
Its members are Canada (its current chairman), Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US.
From the outset, it was designed to be a forum for discussion of environmental issues and polar research.
Since the region’s economic importance became apparent, numerous other countries have disputed the rights of the Arctic states to keep the potential riches to themselves.
At the biennial meeting of the Council in Sweden in May 2013, permanent observer status was granted to six out of 14 applicants (China, India, Italy, Japan, Singapore and South Korea).
China has been particularly adamant that others must be allowed in. Beijing is developing cooperation with Norway and pouring investment into Iceland.
China has made it clear to Russia that it will not accept being shut out of the Arctic.