RUSSIA has changed the entire post-Cold War setup in the international arena, based on the idea of building a cooperative system of security in Europe. Through its annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the asymmetric aggression that soon followed in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin began to implement an entirely different policy vision. It is backfiring now - writes GIS guest expert General Professor Stanisław Koziej.
From the start of his tenure as Russia’s top leader in 2000, President Vladimir Putin has embarked on a neo-imperial policy doctrine, striving to regain Russia’s position as one of the pillars of the world order. He opted to build the country’ power without taking anyone else’s interests into consideration. A practical test of this doctrine was the war in Georgia in 2008, as well as the engineered gas crisis in January 2009 – when Russia cut off supplies of gas to Ukraine in order to blackmail it, while putting its former allies in Central and Eastern Europe on notice.
When, after years of empire-building rhetoric, he fully implemented this policy in Ukraine, Mr Putin saw an outpouring of admiration and enthusiastic support at home. It is increasingly evident, however, that Russia is trapped there with no obvious way out - a hostage to its leader’s conviction that all that matters in politics is raw power.
The Russian president has made serious mistakes responding to the Ukrainian crisis. Surprised by the Maidan revolt in Kiev, which led to the ousting of the Kremlin-dependent President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014, he reacted spontaneously, escalating his responses to increasingly pro-Western sentiment in Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea was President Putin’s first grave error in the international arena. In due course, he was also forced to engage militarily in Donbass, deepening the strategic bear trap in which he finds himself.
Historically, Russia and Ukraine stood for something more than neighbours. The two peoples lived side by side for centuries, mingled and impacted on each other in countless ways until, during the final years of the Soviet Union, they formed practically one Soviet civilisation, very nearly a single nation. Such was the situation until last year, when President Putin’s Russia attacked and humiliated the Ukrainians.
As a result, Ukrainian national identity began to rebuild and establish itself anew, precisely in opposition to Russia. Mr Putin stands a good chance of going down in history as the restorer of Ukrainian nationalism (and, also inadvertently, as the restorer of Nato).
Today, he needs Ukraine. He is stuck there. The neo-imperialist Russia he is striving to create is not viable without it. Until 2014, the Kremlin managed to keep Ukraine in Russia’s fold with a combination of economic ties and political pressure. This route is closed to Mr Putin now.
A successful Ukraine, on the other hand, modernised and growing in cooperation with the West, would be a dangerous example for Russians. In due time such an example could inspire a Russian ‘Maidan’ and eventually end Mr Putin’s dream of restoring Russia to its glory as an authoritarian empire.
In the shadow of war and threats from Russia, Kiev has been painstakingly, organically working on improving its internal stability and functionality of the state. It is giving up grand ambitions and expectations, accepting ‘rotten compromises’ with the West, with Russia and within its own society. This requires discipline, sacrifice and good, even great, mature leadership.
Is today’s Ukraine, with its wobbly institutions and economic woes, capable of successfully executing this promising, yet difficult strategy? Possibly, but there is no certainty here. Exhausted with endless crisis, the Ukrainians may also become restless and divided again. A long period of resignation, paralysis and internal struggles could follow, making Ukraine a failed state, with all the negative strategic consequences to the region.
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Publication Date:
Fri, 2015-08-21 05:00
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